NFL Advanced Stats: Target Share, Snap Share & Expected Fantasy Points
Usage and efficiency, built from nflverse play by play, snap counts and Next Gen Stats. DFS is won on opportunity (snap share, target share, red zone looks) far more than on efficiency, so those lead. Two columns are worth reading first. FPOE is half PPR points per game minus what the player's opportunity was actually worth: a negative number means the role is there and the scoring has not followed, which is the buy, while a positive one was usually built on touchdowns his volume will not keep producing. Edge compares his usage rank against his salary rank, so positive means the market has not caught up yet. Every rate is recomputed over the week range you pick rather than averaged across weeks, so a role that changed in week 3 shows up cleanly. Use View to switch between the standard box score (targets, receptions, receiving and rushing yards, touchdowns, completions, interceptions), the advanced metrics, or both together, and Show as to read the counting stats as totals or per game.
Usage & Opportunity
Game Environment
| Tm | Plays | Pass% | AY/DB |
|---|
Volume sets the ceiling for everyone in an offense. A team near the top of both plays and pass rate is where receiving production concentrates, and a high AY/DB tells you it concentrates downfield rather than at the sticks. These are what each offense actually did over the weeks you selected, not a projection.
NFL usage leaders, weeks 1 to 6 of the 2026 season
Updated October 22, 2026. Follows the season and week range selected above. All figures cover weeks 1 to 6 and are recomputed from the counting stats, not averaged across weeks.
Over weeks 1 to 6 of the 2026 NFL season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) leads all pass catchers with a 34.9% target share. Tyson Bagent (CHI) is the biggest buy-low signal at -8.5 fantasy points over expected per game, meaning his role is worth noticeably more than he has scored.
Target share leaders, weeks 1 to 6
Share of his team's targets. Around 25% marks a true alpha.
| # | Player | Tm | Pos | Tgt% | Tgt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 34.9% | 66 |
| 2 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 32.8% | 41 |
| 3 | Puka Nacua | LA | WR | 31.9% | 52 |
| 4 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | 30.9% | 42 |
| 5 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | 30.3% | 57 |
| 6 | Malik Nabers | NYG | WR | 29.2% | 61 |
| 7 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 28.5% | 65 |
| 8 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | 28.4% | 69 |
| 9 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 28.2% | 48 |
| 10 | Isaiah Likely | NYG | TE | 28.2% | 59 |
Snap share leaders, weeks 1 to 6
Share of his offense's snaps. Separates every-down roles from rotations.
| # | Player | Tm | Pos | Snap% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DK Metcalf | PIT | WR | 95.4% |
| 2 | Cade Otton | TB | TE | 94.8% |
| 3 | Denzel Boston | CLE | WR | 92.0% |
| 4 | Jordan Addison | MIN | WR | 91.7% |
| 5 | Devaughn Vele | NO | WR | 91.5% |
| 6 | Tyler Warren | IND | TE | 91.1% |
| 7 | Trey McBride | ARI | TE | 90.5% |
| 8 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | 90.3% |
| 9 | Jameson Williams | DET | WR | 90.1% |
| 10 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | 90.1% |
Running back carry share, weeks 1 to 6
Share of team carries, with red zone carries per game.
| # | Player | Tm | Car% | RZ/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | 85.4% | 1.2 |
| 2 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | 82.2% | 1.4 |
| 3 | Derrick Henry | BAL | 79.8% | 0.2 |
| 4 | James Cook | BUF | 77.5% | 0.3 |
| 5 | Javonte Williams | DAL | 77.3% | 0.5 |
| 6 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | 77.2% | 0.3 |
| 7 | Dameon Pierce | PHI | 76.7% | 0.5 |
| 8 | Aaron Jones | MIN | 75.8% | 0.4 |
| 9 | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | 75.4% | 0.6 |
| 10 | Tony Pollard | TEN | 73.7% | 0.0 |
Best buy-low candidates by FPOE, weeks 1 to 6
Most negative fantasy points over expected: the usage is there, the scoring has not followed.
| # | Player | Tm | Pos | FPOE | Half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Bagent | CHI | QB | -8.5 | 4.1 |
| 2 | Daniel Jones | IND | QB | -6.2 | 10.2 |
| 3 | Jacoby Brissett | ARI | QB | -6.0 | 15.1 |
| 4 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | -5.3 | 10.4 |
| 5 | Pierre Strong | GB | RB | -5.3 | 6.2 |
| 6 | Michael Wilson | ARI | WR | -5.2 | 9.1 |
| 7 | A.J. Brown | NE | WR | -5.2 | 4.2 |
| 8 | Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | -5.2 | 11.7 |
| 9 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | -4.3 | 17.5 |
| 10 | Jadarian Price | SEA | RB | -4.2 | 4.0 |
Most likely to regress by FPOE, weeks 1 to 6
Scoring well ahead of opportunity, usually on touchdowns the volume will not keep producing.
| # | Player | Tm | Pos | FPOE | Half |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | +7.9 | 23.4 |
| 2 | Ryan Miller | MIA | WR | +6.4 | 5.6 |
| 3 | Omar Cooper Jr. | NYJ | WR | +6.3 | 11.4 |
| 4 | Drew Lock | SEA | QB | +6.2 | 17.1 |
| 5 | Zay Flowers | BAL | WR | +4.5 | 15.7 |
| 6 | Jonah Coleman | DEN | RB | +4.2 | 6.7 |
| 7 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | +4.1 | 13.6 |
| 8 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | +4.0 | 17.4 |
| 9 | Nate Adkins | DEN | TE | +4.0 | 6.2 |
| 10 | Jaylin Noel | HOU | WR | +4.0 | 9.4 |
Half PPR points per game, weeks 1 to 6
Actual half PPR scoring, for reference against the usage above.
| # | Player | Tm | Pos | Half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | RB | 28.0 |
| 2 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | 26.8 |
| 3 | Kenneth Walker III | KC | RB | 26.2 |
| 4 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | WR | 23.4 |
| 5 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | 23.0 |
| 6 | Brock Purdy | SF | QB | 22.3 |
| 7 | Bryce Young | CAR | QB | 22.1 |
| 8 | Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 21.4 |
| 9 | Caleb Williams | CHI | QB | 20.5 |
| 10 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | 20.2 |
What these NFL advanced stats mean
Box score numbers tell you what already happened. These tell you what is likely to happen next, because they measure opportunity rather than results. A receiver's catches depend on whether the ball arrived; his target share, snap share and air yards share depend only on the role his coaches gave him, and roles are far stickier week to week than touchdowns are.
Target share, snap share and WOPR
Target share is the percentage of his team's targets a player saw. Snap share is the percentage of his offense's snaps he was on the field for, which is what separates a genuine every-down player from a rotational one. Air yards share is his cut of the yardage his team threw toward, so it rewards the downfield role that target share alone misses. WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) folds the last two together at 1.5 times target share plus 0.7 times air yards share, and is the single best one-number summary of a receiver's workload.
Routes run, TPRR and yards per route run
Targets per route run is the cleanest usage rate in football: it asks how often a player was thrown to when he actually ran a route, so unlike target share it is not distorted by how often his team passed or how many snaps he rested. Yards per route run does the same for production. Routes here are reconstructed from which players were on the field for each dropback, because no one publishes charted route counts for free. Seasons without published participation data show the other columns instead of guessing.
Expected fantasy points and FPOE
Expected fantasy points price every target and carry by its depth and field position, so they describe what a player's usage was worth regardless of whether he converted it. FPOE is his actual half PPR points per game minus that figure. A negative FPOE is usually the buy signal: the role is already there and the scoring has not caught up. A large positive one tends to regress, because it was built on touchdowns the volume will not keep producing. For fantasy football that makes it a waiver and buy-low tool; for DFS it finds the players the market has not repriced yet.
Where the data comes from
Everything is built from nflverse play by play, snap counts and NFL Next Gen Stats, with expected points from ffopportunity and DraftKings salaries for the current slate. It refreshes every Tuesday once Monday night is graded, and every figure is automatically recomputed from the sources and compared against the published file before it goes live. Rates are recalculated over whichever week range you select rather than averaged across weeks, so a role that changed mid-season shows up cleanly instead of being blurred away.
Free during the beta
These NFL stats are free and open to everyone, no sign-up. The SlateSims PGA DFS optimizer — ownership projections, hole-by-hole simulations and contest ROI for DraftKings golf — is free during the beta too. An NFL lineup optimizer is on the roadmap and is not built yet; this page is a stats reference for now.
Frequently asked questions
Is this NFL advanced stats tool free?
Yes. The NFL stats page is completely free and needs no account or sign-up. The PGA DFS optimizer is also free during its beta.
How often are the NFL stats updated?
Stats refresh every Tuesday, once every game including Monday night has been graded. DraftKings salaries refresh again on Thursday and Sunday as slates are posted and repriced.
What is a good target share in the NFL?
Roughly 20% marks a clear number one option, 25% and up is a genuine alpha receiver, and anything past 30% is among the most concentrated roles in the league. Below about 15% a player usually needs a touchdown to pay off.
What is FPOE in fantasy football?
FPOE is fantasy points over expected: actual half PPR points per game minus what the player's opportunity was worth. Negative means his usage has not yet turned into scoring, which often makes him a buy. Positive usually means touchdown luck that will not repeat.
Can I see stats for a specific week or range of weeks?
Yes. Choose any start and end week, or use the Last 1, Last 3, Last 5 and full season shortcuts. Every rate is recomputed over the range you pick rather than averaged across weeks.
Does SlateSims have an NFL lineup optimizer?
Not yet. NFL is a stats reference today and an optimizer is on the roadmap. The PGA side already has a full optimizer, simulations and contest ROI.